David Cameron has announced there will be a staged exit from Number 10 and a new Prime Minister by October. The eurosceptics within his party will be victorious and he will go down in history as the Prime Minister who took Britain out of the European Union despite so vociferously campaigning for the exact opposite.
Boris Johnson's fortunes have soared dramatically as the figurehead of Vote Leave.
He has neatly positioned himself to become a main player in any ensuing Conservative leadership challenge. Enter, Prime Minister Boris.
Jeremy Corbyn has also been roundly criticised for not shouting loud enough about why Britain needed to remain an EU member.
With 60 or 70 per cent of Labour members thought to be pro-EU, MPs will pile on the pressure for him to resign too. It may be the moment that many of his opponents have been waiting for.
Cameron's voice breaks during emotional resignation speechPlay!04:42
Who will be our next Prime Minister?
It does not take much effort to work out who could be the main contenders.
While Michael Gove has previously said it does not interest him, it is not uncommon for politicians to change their minds.
Mr Gove is well-respected and has managed to rise above personal attacks throughout the campaign, but some in the party worry that he is not "normal" enough to win votes across the whole country.
Boris Johnson, the other prominent eurosceptic, has positioned himself neatly as a figurehead for the Brexit campaign. If Britain votes to leave, he will be in prime position to take on the leadership.
Mr Johnson consistently polls well with Conservative members and Mr Gove has enjoyed recent high popularity levels.
But he has made a number of gaffes during the campaign which could have damaged his chances.
George Osborne, the Chancellor, has slipped down the rankings in recent months though, while other Remain campaigners such as Theresa May and Sajid Javid do not perform well either in ConservativeHome polls.
All that could change if Britain confidently votes to Remain and the Brexit campaign falls out of favour with the wider public.
How will it happen?
David Cameron has announced he will resign his post as leader of the Conservative party and Prime Minister.
He has not set out a full timetable but has suggested a new leader will be in post by October this year meaning a leadership contest will be underway in the summer.
The process for electing a new Conservative leader is fairly complex.
Candidates must first be nominated by two sitting Tory MPs via a submission to the chair of the 1922 committee Graham Brady.
Graham Brady will oversee the electionCREDIT: PA
If one person is selected they win outright. If only two people are selected by MPs they both go forward to a wider ballot of Conservative party members, conducted by post.
If three or four members of the party are nominated as potential leadership candidates MPs must whittle them down to two choices using a first past the post system with subsequent ballots after fourth place has been knocked out.
Then the two final choices are sent out to the wider party for the postal ballot and Mr Brady will decide the deadline for the vote, before a count begins at noon that day.
The result is then announced to the Parliamentary party and other members.
Here is a run through of the main candidates to replace him
Media captionAsk Andy: What happens to the pound after the UK's EU vote?
The most helpful tool for economic ball-gazers is the value of sterling. Most of them expect the value of the pound to take a significant hit in the medium term. It certainly fell sharply as it emerged that the UK was to leave the EU - at one stage down 10% to its lowest level since 1985.
That is likely to mean:
buying goods or services from other countries will become more expensive
inflation will therefore be higher
goods being sold to other countries will become cheaper for the buyers
So what, in turn, will that mean for our household finances?
Mortgages
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To combat the extra pressure on inflation, the Bank of England may consider raising interest rates. That would make mortgages and loans more expensive to repay. The Treasury forecast a rise of between 0.7% and 1.1% in borrowing costs (on top of what happens anyway), with the prime minister claiming the average cost of a mortgage could increase by up to £1,000 a year.
Since costs for landlords would increase, rents would also be likely to rise.
But equally, if there were a severe shock to the UK economy, the Bank of England might have to consider a cut in rates. In which case, the cost of lending could actually fall. It might leave rates as they are.
House prices
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that Brexit could cause a sharp drop in house prices. This was on the expectation that the cost of mortgages would rise.
The Treasury has said house prices could be hit by between 10% and 18% over the next two years, compared to where they otherwise would have been. This would be good news for first-time buyers, but not so great for existing homeowners.
The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) believes house prices in London could see the biggest change, losing up to £7,500 on average over the next three years, compared to where they otherwise would have been. Elsewhere, it said values could fall by £2,300. But since it expects prices to continue rising anyway, this means a slower rate of increase, rather than a fall in real values (see table below).
And again, if the Bank of England were forced to cut rates, all these projections would be wrong.
How might the EU exit affect average house prices?
Year
By leaving EU
If UK had remained in EU
2016
£277,600
£278,500
2017
£288,900
£290,800
2018
£300,800
£303,000
London
2016
£533,700
£536,000
2017
£559,300
£564,500
2018
£591,700
£599,200
Source: NAEA/ARLA/CEBR
Wages
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Several experts have predicted that the economic shock of leaving the EU would cause unemployment to rise in the UK. That would reduce the pressure for wage growth. The Treasury estimated that wages will be between 2.8% and 4% lower at the point of maximum impact, with a typical worker at least £780 a year worse off.
But let us not forget that the UK will remain a member of the EU for at least another two years, and predicting economic performance in two years' time is - even in normal circumstances - notoriously difficult.
Benefit payments
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If you accept the argument that economic growth will be slower outside the EU - in the short term at least - the government's income could also fall, leaving it with less money to spend.
Estimates of the size of that possible shortfall vary between £28bn and £44bn by 2019-20.
Since the welfare budget amounts to about 28% of all government spending, it is logical that it might see a significant proportion of cuts, further reducing the generosity of tax credits and benefit payments.
A report by the National Institute of Social and Economic Research (Niesr) said some families could lose as much as £2,771 a year.
In reality, the UK's economic growth - and potential budget shortfalls - will very much depend on the precise nature of trade agreements, and whether the UK will be a member of the European Economic Area (EEA).
It may also be that the government decides not to keep its earlier promise to balance the books by 2020, known as the fiscal mandate. This would give it much more leeway to maintain benefit payments at current levels.
Tax
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A week before the referendum, George Osborne warned that a vote to leave the EU might result in tax increases too. He spoke about a 2p rise on the basic tax rate - currently 20p in the pound - and a 3p rise in the higher rate - currently 40p. He also said Inheritance Tax (IHT) might rise by 5p, from its current 40p.
But to do so would go against the Conservative government's promises at the last election, so would be difficult politically.
Many people believe the government would be much more likely to extend the period of austerity beyond 2020. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has said that spending might need to be curbed for two further years.
During the referendum the Vote Leave campaign said it wanted to remove the 5% VAT charge on domestic fuel that is currently required by the EU. But it is not clear how - or when - that could be achieved.
Pensions
During the referendum campaign, the prime minister said the so-called "triple lock" for state pensions would be threatened by a UK exit. This is the agreement by which pensions increase by at least the level of earnings, inflation or 2.5% every year - whichever is the highest.
Again, this assumes a poorer economy, and lower national income.
If economic performance does deteriorate, the Bank of England could decide on a further programme of quantitative easing (QE), as an alternative to cutting interest rates.
This would lower bond yields, and with them annuity rates. So anyone taking out a pension annuity could get less income for their money.
Investments and savings
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Any rise in interest rates would be good news for savers.
But during the campaign, the Treasury argued that UK shares would become less attractive to foreign investors should we leave the EU, and would therefore decline in value.
In the longer term, this is by no means a certainty. Shares typically rise with company profits. Big exporters might benefit from the weaker pound, so the value of their shares might well rise, while importers might see profits squeezed.
The big investment platform Hargreaves Lansdown has told its clients that it is impossible to know the long-term economic implications of Brexit.
"We cannot assume an Out vote will be bad for the long-term prospects of the stock market," it said.
Media captionHow might Brexit affect your summer holiday, asks the BBC's Simon Gompertz
A fall in the value of the pound will make holidays to the EU more expensive, as we will have to pay more for accommodation priced in euros.
David Cameron claimed that a holiday for four people for eight nights will cost £230 extra, as a result of sterling's devaluation.
However, the cost of flights would depend on individual airlines, and whether the base price is in pounds or euros.
Both Easyjet and Ryanair have argued that flights will become more expensive, as a result of more restrictive aviation rules. But IAG, the owner of British Airways, has said a UK exit from the EU would not affect its business.
Mobile phones
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The cost of using a mobile phone in Europe could also rise.
Both BT and Vodafone have said that EU caps to mobile roaming charges might no longer apply.
But in reality it would be up to a future UK government to decide whether to adopt the EU price restrictions or not.
They are contained within a European regulation, not a directive, so they have not been incorporated into UK law.
On the grounds of the Petit Palais in Paris stands a bronze statue of Winston Churchill. It was sculpted by a Frenchman and recalls the day in November 1944 that the British Prime Minister visited the French capital soon after the end of the Nazi occupation.
The statue was erected in tribute to Churchill's wartime leadership -- but also his vision for Europe. A few months after that visit to Paris, Churchill spoke of the need "to re-create the European family," with Germany and France at its heart.
"We must build a kind of United States of Europe," he said.
More than 70 years later, the European family seems altogether more enthusiastic about the project than Churchill's own compatriots.
Stronger together
The front page of El Pais, Spain's leading daily newspaper, shows a woman standing in front of Parliament in London holding aloft a "Together Stronger" banner. In France, Queen Elizabeth II and Mr. Bean share the front cover of the weekly Marianne, with the banner "Ils sont fous, ces Anglais." Swedish tabloid Dagens Nyheter has a map of Britain drifting away from Europe with the text "Mind the Gap."
The message from Europe to British voters, who face a referendum Thursday on whether to leave the European Union, is -- mainly -- "Please don't go."
Some convey the message as a plea. Europe needs Britain's defense capabilities at a time when Russia is saber rattling, they say. It needs Britain as a balance to German dominance inside the EU and as a counterweight to the Franco-German obsession with regulation.
Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny wrote Monday in The Guardian: "The EU needs renewal and we need a strong UK at the table to help drive the reform agenda that can help the union regain competitiveness and growth."
Start of a trend?
There are also worries that a "Brexit" would tempt other states to try to negotiate a better deal.
Others have opted for veiled threats. French and German ministers have warned Britain that "out is out"; don't expect favorable treatment or access to the single European market for old time's sake. They point to the fact that Switzerland and Norway contribute to EU budgets in return for tariff-free trade; so would the United Kingdom.
The French economy minister, Emmanuel Macron, has taken the argument a step further, warning that if the UK leaves it will become irrelevant. The often outspoken Macron told Le Monde last week the UK would become like Guernsey, an island off the French coast, "a small, isolated country at the edge of the world."
Macron has been among those arguing for swift amputation should the "Leave" camp win -- saying that an EU meeting at the end of June must send a firm message and timetable for the surgery. He's also suggested that France will roll out the red carpet for financial services firms in London that would find themselves suddenly outside the EU.
Don't go
A majority of the European public also appears to want Britain to remain in the EU.
According to an opinion survey across all 28 member states, 54% of Europeans want the UK to stay -- a solid but hardly overwhelming majority -- while 21% want to see Britain leave.
Ready for school? Kids explain Brexit
The survey, carried out by the Bertelsmann Foundation in Germany, interviewed some 11,000 people. A third of those polled thought the EU would be less influential in the world without the UK, but most did not expect their own country to be worse off.
What will immigration look like if Britain leaves the EU?
Among the larger states, Spain and Poland appear most enthusiastic about the British staying in (not least in Poland's case because nearly 1 million Poles now reside in the UK.) The French insist they don't really care, with 41% saying Britain should stay in and 25% saying it should go.
While the "Leave" campaign in the UK gets most of its support from Conservatives and the right, that's not echoed in Europe. Far-right parties are faring well everywhere, from Denmark to France to Hungary. Many -- such as the National Front in France -- don't want to see Europe collapse nor Britain to leave. But they want a different Europe.
Marine Le Pen, leader of the French National Front, said over the weekend: "The eurozone has among the weakest growth in the world. Things get more precarious every day. ... The EU had no idea how to respond to the migrant crisis."
'Wrong direction'
Whatever the result of the British vote Thursday, the European project is at a crossroads.
A raft of polls shows that most people in member states still think the EU is a good thing. But they are unimpressed by the way it's run.
In a major survey across Europe in August, 72% said European politics was moving "in the wrong direction." The disconnect is growing between the elites, who favor an ever closer union -- even a federal Europe -- and a public that puts jobs, growth and a workable migration policy first.
Disenchantment with Europe's priorities mirrors a "throw the bums out" mood in individual states. The Greek political establishment has been shattered. Polls ahead of national elections Sunday in Spain show the insurgent Podemos overtaking the Socialists as the main party of the left. In Italy, the Five Star Movement -- an anti-globalization protest party -- has just won mayoral races in Rome and Turin. The party wants a referendum in Italy about staying within the single currency zone.
Europe has stumbled from crisis to crisis since 2008, keeping the euro afloat, rescuing Greece from bankruptcy, fighting over migration policy and now bracing itself for years of divorce negotiations should the "Leave" camp win this week.
In Macron's words, "Europe has lost its capacity to think and to project itself in the world."
Churchill would not be pleased.
